Should I have been so scared?

[pseudoswede]

At a DPP event last night...

Eight-handed table. Blinds are 100/200, and I have about 5500 chips (probabaly 2nd or 3rd in chips at the table).

I get pocket tens in early position, and I raise it to 400. The guy next to me (who has about 3300 chips) calls, and it folds around back to me. The flop is AKT. I made the set, but I'm very worried the guy has just flopped a straight (I'm thinking he was holding QJ suited). I bet 400. He thinks about it for a minute, then raises it to 1000. I call.

The turn is a rag. I once again bet out 400. If he raises or goes all-in, then I have a very tough decision. But he just calls. Of course, paranoid as I am, I'm now thinking he's just trying to suck as much money out of me as possible.

The river is...another ten! I go from thinking "does he really have the straight" to "how much more money can I get out of him"! :D He only has about 1500 chips left. I figure if I go all-in, he'll probably fold if he doesn't have the straight, so I want to try to see if he'll raise again. I bet 400, and he just calls and turns over pocket queens.

We discussed the hand later that evening, and he was thinking about re-raising me pre-flop. If he had re-raised to 800 pre-flop, would you have called with pocket tens? And should I have been so worried about the flop?

[pseudoswede]

In addition, with respect to low-limit/free hold'em, how worried should I really be when there are three suits or three running cards on the board?

[loomisdl]

My 2 cents:

If he comes over the top pf it becomes mostly an odds question. What odds are you getting on the call pre-flop and how does that compare with your odds against the range of hands that you'd put him on. Best case scenario, he's really loose and aggressive and re-raised with a lower pocket pair. It's more likely in my mind though that the re-raise pf is is either two overcards (you have a slight advantage) or a higher pair (you're in big trouble).

If he's got a smaller pair you are around 80% to win the hand

If he's got two overcards you're around 55% to win

If he's got an overpair you're around 20% to win

Let's say we assign his hand probabilities at 20% lower pair, 40% two overcards and 40% higher pair

With this range of hands you figure to win around 45% of the time so if your opponent had raised to 800 you'd have to call 400 in to a pot of 1500 - a pretty clear call IMO.

(my math may be flawed here, someone may want to check it....)

On the second question - coordinated boards are scary, but they're scary for your opponents as well. If no one is betting at it and I've got a hand I'll throw out a probe bet against one or two opponents. Any more opponents than that and I feel that I'm pretty likely to get called down so I'm less likely to try to take it down. Particulary in low buy-in or free tourneys - players love to see flops with A-x and any two suited so the suited boards get trickier. However, if you've got a hand giving free cards is a mistake IMO, you should bet and define your hand.

[sharKKiller]

cmon now...

if he re-raises to 800--- your gonna call and hit a set. if the guy is good, he wouldn't re-raise with a QJs, especially short-stacked. (but he did call you down with QQ when the board was AK10 rag 10 :) )

don't be scared